Friday night racing returns to Pakenham for the first time in over 4 months. The rail is out 9m tonight, a setup that can occasionally throw up strong on-speed biases. While Pakenham generally races fair, history suggests the 9m rail can favour leaders, especially early. Conditions are mild with little wind, and the track is rated a Soft 5 but could upgrade to a Good 4 as the night goes on.
Track pattern will be everything tonight. I’m keeping my powder dry early and holding off until we see how the track is playing. Confidence levels are low until that becomes clear, so no early bets for now. I’ll be betting late once I have more data, follow me on X @beatthebagman_ for live updates and late mail.
That said, I’ll be backing one early that can race to the tracks pattern, and another two races have my attention: Race 2 and Race 3, both featuring short-priced favourites I’m looking to take on.
Race 2
I really like the jumpouts of Angel in Black and Choir Point. Both have upside, but tempo is a worry. There’s not much speed in this 1000m sprint, and if the track is favouring leaders, Angel in Black could be in strife getting back in the run. I might have a play here later depending on how the first race sets up, but for now, staying patient.
(First race is a small 2000m field, so it won’t give us much of a read on the pattern).
I think the favorite is vulnerable here. He’s opened at $2.25 based off of his solo 2 year-old run. It was a good run and he showed a stack of ability but I could not have him on recent jumpouts. Leaderish track would be in his favour though.
Race 3
I’m interested in #9 Cooly around $9. His debut at Kilmore was better than it looks on paper, he got back, worked home strongly, and made ground on a day when few did. Second-up now with experience, he should improve again. If the track’s playing fair, or better yet, favouring wide sweeping runs, he’s right in this. But if the bias favours leaders, we’ll reassess before the jump.
Race 4
Play: #7 Good Harmony — 1 unit win @ $2.60
Keen on Good Harmony in what looks a thin maiden outside of Paramount Plus. Her debut was excellent, she bombed the start and still ran the second-fastest last 200m of the meeting on a track that heavily favoured on-pacers. The quick 5-day backup suggests she’s thriving, and the step up in trip suits perfectly. She can either roll forward or take a sit depending on the pattern. If Paramount Plus drifts to silly odds, I might have a small saver, but Good Harmony looks ready to win.
Summary:
Cautious approach tonight. Track pattern will dictate everything, so I’ll be holding fire early and looking to strike once the picture’s clearer. Expect potential plays from Race 2 onwards, with Good Harmony shaping as the best of the night if conditions are fair. Stay tuned on X @beatthebagman_ for the late mail.