Racing at Warrnambool today with the rail back in the true position after being out 6m two weeks ago. Expecting an advantage to on-pace runners who can find the inside early, which is often the pattern here.
Strong northerly winds could play a role. It’ll be a tailwind in the straight and a headwind up the back. That’ll be most noticeable in the 1400m chute races, where runners caught wide will face a long 640m stretch straight into the breeze. Something to monitor as the day unfolds.
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Today’s Bets
Total Outlay: 5 units
Race 1 – #9 Smashing Lad — 1 unit win @ $2.50+
Race 3 – #9 Miss Revealing — 2 units win @ $2.10
Race 5 – #12 Nightime Star — 1 units win @ $6.50
Multi: All selections to place — 1 unit @ $3.10
Race 1 – 1100m Maiden
Play: #9 Smashing Lad — 1 unit win @ $2.50+
Odds: Expecting support for Detective Gus, which could push Smashing Lad out closer to $3.00 pre-jump.
Analysis:
Smashing Lad was terrific first-up over 1000m here, trapped four wide without cover yet still boxing on for second. The form from that race holds up and this field isn’t any stronger. He’ll strip fitter, draws better, and can either lead or camp on the leader which should be ideal given the likely on-pace bias.
Detective Gus looks a nice horse in the making but might find Smashing Lad too sharp over the short trip.
Race 3 – 1400m Maiden
Play: #9 Miss Revealing — 2 units win @ $2.10
Odds: $2.00 looks a fair price and could firm.
Analysis:
Clear standout. Miss Revealing debuted in a much stronger Sandown race and hit the line nicely. She’ll be fitter for that run, maps for a soft trail, and gets the services of Beau Mertens, who makes the long trip down for this mount alone. Class, race experience, and a perfect map make her the one to beat.
Race 5 – 1000m BM62
Play: #12 Nightime Star — 1 units win @ $6.50
Odds: Should hold around this range but may shorten if the rail plays hot early.
Analysis:
Nightime Star is in good form against similar company and returns to her preferred 1000m on her home track. I like her dropping back from 1200m today. She broke her maiden here two runs back, drops nicely in weight to carry 53kg with the apprentice claim, and maps to get the right run tucked in behind the speed. Lightly raced, hard fit after the hit out at 1200m and with some question marks over the favourite, she looks solid each-way value.
Overall Summary:
Expecting a leader-friendly pattern early with the rail back true and a strong tailwind in the straight. Smashing Lad and Miss Revealing look well placed to capitalise, while Nightime Star offers genuine value later in the card.