Date: Wednesday, 15 October 2025
Track: Caulfield
Track Rating: Good4
Rail: +12m entire circuit
It’s carnival time at Caulfield. They raced here on Saturday, and now we’re back for a midweek meeting before Caulfield Cup Day on Saturday.
On the weekend the track played fairly even, with a slight edge to on-pacers, mostly due to the headwind. Today we’ve got perfect conditions. It’s currently rated a Good4 and could upgrade to a Good3 later. With the rail out 12 metres and no wind, I’m expecting a very leaderish pattern. I’ll be avoiding anything that needs to come from the back early in the day.
I’ve got three early plays in Races 1, 2, and 4. I’ll be watching closely to see how the track plays, if anything stands out later, I’ll post late mail on X at @beatthebagman_.
Race 1 – 2400m BM84
Play: #7 Litzdeel — 1 unit win @ $4.80
Analysis:
Litzdeel was excellent second-up last start over 2000m, charging late to finish 0.2L behind King’s Valley, who’s the favourite again. Third-up now and stepping to 2400m, a trip she’s proven at in stakes company, she carries 56kg and maps perfectly just off the speed.
King’s Valley draws to get a soft run from barrier 2 but is untested past 2100m and carries top weight (59kg). With the lighter weight, superior stamina, and Shinn aboard, Litzdeel looks ready to turn the tables at $4.80.
Race 2 – 1600m BM70
Play: #3 Regal Award — 1.5 units win @ $3.30
Saver: #7 Obvious — 0.5 units win @ $7.50
Analysis:
Small but quality field. Regal Award and Centu Cavaddi come from the same Sandown 1400m race, easily the best reference. Centu Cavaddi finished ahead, but Regal Award was stiff not to win after being held up.
He started $2.50 favourite that day and now goes around $3.30 in a similar setup. With little tempo here, he can roll forward and control the race, a big advantage given today’s likely pattern. Shinn jumps off, but happy to take him on at the odds.
Summary:
Pretty keen. Regal Award should be favourite and gets the right map to bounce back.
Race 4 – 1000m Listed (2YO)
Play: #6 Free Flying — 1.5 units win @ $7.00
Saver: #8 Rachini — 0.5 units win @ $4.20
Analysis:
Tricky race with all debutants, but Free Flying looks sharp. Her jumpout was the quickest of the morning and she showed strong early speed. With that gate pace, she can find the rail and lead, a big plus for a 2YO on what should be a leader-friendly track.
Rachini has trialled up beautifully and gets a soft run from barrier 2. She might have the most raw ability but could need things to open up late.
Summary:
Free Flying can control the race from in front and prove hard to run down. Rachini the danger with a perfect trail.
Overall Summary:
Three solid early plays to kick things off at Caulfield. Track pattern should favour those up on the speed, so I’m happy to be with runners who can take a forward position. Let’s start the blog off with a strong day.
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